Nigerian opposition candidate could unseat Buhari

Significance

President Muhammadu Buhari unveiled his own platform yesterday, including emphasis on his anti-graft credentials. Buhari is facing a formidable challenge from Abubakar ahead of February’s elections, with fears growing over potentially disputed polls.

Impacts

• Abubakar's promise to serve one term if elected will likely prompt pressure from regional elites to outline a south-east succession plan.
• US government relations with the PDP could improve in the coming months as Washington prepares for a potential Abubakar triumph.
• While Buhari has lost support in northern states, his core support will still likely dwarf Abubakar’s, notably in Bauchi and Kano.
• Support from the Olusegun Obasanjo-backed Coalition of United Political Parties for Abubakar could presage growing elite endorsement.