Malawian political instability could worsen

Significance

Chilima recently split from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) after a raft of government corruption scandals. The failure of the UTM to register could heighten political tensions ahead of the 2019 polls.

Impacts

• Despite recent defections and setbacks, the Malawi Congress Party is likely to be the biggest challenger to the ruling DPP next year.
• International donors may consider suspending budgetary support if state corruption and political intimidation worsens.
• The opposition People’s Party is unlikely to be a major force in 2019 despite the return of its leader, former President Joyce Banda.
• The UTM’s emergence could prompt widening splits in several other parties besides the DPP.