Improvement in US ties with Ankara can only go so far

Significance

US President Donald Trump has warmed towards Turkey, which is benefiting from the contrast with Saudi behaviour. Turkish-US cooperation in the Khashoggi affair and the release of US pastor Andrew Brunson have eased bilateral tensions after months of hostile confrontation.

Impacts

• Ankara could make things more difficult for Riyadh in the Gulf and tensions with Saudi Arabia may become permanent.
• Turkish-Saudi trade links are not deep and will decline further; Turkey does not depend on Saudi energy.
• Turkey will not break with Iran, and will try to disguise its position on the US-Iranian rift for as long as possible.
• Turkish military and political pressure on the Syrian Kurds will grow despite the US-Turkish easing.