Brazil second round is Bolsonaro's to lose

Significance

Bolsonaro, a retired army captain who has often insulted minorities and supported torture and the 1964-85 military regime, obtained some 46% of valid votes, against 29% for Haddad, the handpicked candidate of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The results of concomitant legislative and state-level votes also confirmed a sharp rightward turn in Brazilian politics.

Impacts

• If elected, Bolsonaro may enjoy an initial governing majority in Congress.
• Over time his personality and popular support may lead him to disregard negotiations with legislators.
• Failure to build relationships with legislators could bring governing problems in the medium term.
• With abstentions, blank and spoiled votes reaching nearly 29% in the first round, participation rates will be crucial in the runoff.