Iraqi Kurdish poll results will confirm the status quo

Significance

The poll, due last year, was delayed because of the fight against Islamic State and the fallout from the disastrous September 2017 independence referendum. The vote came shortly before a breakthrough at Iraqi federal level allowed the appointment of a new Iraqi president (by custom a Kurd), even though the Kurdish parties failed to agree on a candidate.

Impacts

• The two main parties will run the Kurdistan region as a duopoly from their respective local power bases.
• Economic reforms will gain momentum, improving investment prospects and internal stability.
• The KRG will slowly work with a pro-Kurdish Iraqi prime minister to address fraught questions around its federal position.