New NAFTA helps Canada’s Trudeau hurdle some problems

Significance

Along with Mexico’s leader President Enrique Pena Nieto, whose term ends on December 1, the new US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be signed by US President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in November, though it then needs ratifying in the three countries. Canada was the last holdout after US and Mexican negotiators reached a deal in August; Canada made concessions on dairy, copyright terms and auto parts rules to safeguard Ottawa’s priorities in the USMCA, notably independent dispute resolution on anti-dumping and countervailing duties.

Impacts

• Canadian pharm firms face increased market competition from US firms newly protected by additional patent protections.
• Canada’s public healthcare system faces new costs from biological and other new medicines; system reform calls could grow.
• Canadian dairy will lose some market share to US products but survive (most of the Supply Management system remains).
• Canadian retailers will see some small revenue slumps as more Canadians use lower duties for US shopping.