Bolivia’s Morales will survive ICJ disappointment

Significance

A victory at The Hague would have enhanced President Evo Morales’s political standing ahead of his re-election bid next year. By the same token, Chilean President Sebastian Pinera has hailed the ruling, although much of the litigation took place under his predecessor.

Impacts

• The Bolivian opposition’s electoral campaign will focus more on the legality of Morales’s running again than the ICJ case.
• Peru’s position on resolving Bolivia’s landlocked status is likely to remain ambivalent.
• Completion of the Ilo-Santos railway project would help reduce Bolivia’s economic dependence on Chile.