African trade pact advance will hasten Nigerian buy-in

Subject

African free trade.

Significance

Six countries are yet to sign the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), including the continent’s largest economy Nigeria. While the impact of its absence will not be felt in the short term, existing trading partners will want to maintain a strong foothold in the country and its projected market of 350 million consumers by 2050.

Impacts

• The AfCFTA could prompt long-term welfare gains worth 16.1 billion dollars, compared with 4.1 billion dollars in lost tariff revenue.
• The AfCFTA's economic effects may be milder, driving GDP and employment increases of just 0.97% and 1.17% respectively in the long term.
• Nigeria’s Dangote group could see sales increase five-fold by 2030, underscoring the potential benefits of AfCFTA to regional manufacturers.