Nigeria’s opposition will try to maintain unity

Subject

Nigeria's opposition.

Significance

The main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is emboldened after scores of recent defections from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Yet the PDP’s chances of winning the 2019 elections may rest on whether it can remain united, with multiple high-profile aspirants, including Senate President Bukola Saraki, vying for its presidential nomination.

Impacts

• Buhari’s delays in passing an amended electoral act will exacerbate fears that he is attempting to undermine scrutiny of next year's vote.
• Should the wealthy Abubakar fail to garner the PDP nomination, this could hurt the party’s financing and campaign strategy.
• Defections to the APC in the south-south and south-east are unlikely to bolster support sufficiently to overtake the PDP there.
• The Buhari administration's poor economic management record may undermine his support in the economically vital south-west.