New models needed to assess US president’s plans

Subject

Political risk forecasting in the age of Trump.

Significance

Former White House aide Omarosa Manigault-Newman this week triggered discussion about whether a recording exists of President Donald Trump saying racial slurs (he denies making any such slurs). Political risk analysts disagree on the controversy’s potential: some argue that if Manigault-Newman’s claims were confirmed it would not change public perceptions of Trump; others argue the alleged word used would constitute a public ‘red line’ being breached, with potentially huge political consequences. From the standpoint of analytical practice, the episode highlights the potential difficulty of forecasting political events during a presidential administration whose actions often have limited useful precedent in recent US history.

Impacts

• Policy entrepreneurship will be greatest in areas where the executive has the most enforcement and regulatory leeway.
• Defence policy unpredictability will likely be constrained by the defence secretary’s control and Congress’s oversight.
• Monetary policy will also maintain ‘normal’ procedures, given the Federal Reserve’s independence.
• Analysts should avoid inferring policy from unnamed source-based reports: policies can be deliberately leaked to be discredited.