Abiy may struggle to settle Ethiopia’s Somali east

Significance

The decision follows weeks of unrest in the Ethiopian Somali National Regional State (ESNRS), capped by the August 6 resignation of regional President Abdi Mahmoud Omar ‘Iley’, two days after federal forces took control of the regional capital, Jijiga. Abdi Iley has been at the centre of the ESNRS political economy for a decade, and his removal poses major risks for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government.

Impacts

• The Liyu police will likely be retained as an integral element of Ethiopia’s regional security strategy.
• Hydrocarbons production, currently at an early stage, will proceed slowly due to security concerns.
• Somaliland could suffer spillover, especially from disruption to trade, as well as from refugee influxes.