South Africa's opposition will struggle for coherence

Significance

De Lille, a popular coloured mayor in the DA's flagship city, was ousted by the party in May but a recent court ruling reinstated her as both mayor and a DA member. The scandal has undermined the DA's efforts to challenge the ruling ANC in next year's elections, with recent surveys showing an almost 14% drop in national support.

Impacts

• The DA will struggle to sell its land reform policies, focused on title deed ownership, to the wider electorate.
• A mooted party breakaway would struggle to gain public support and is thus unlikely to emerge before the 2019 polls.
• A revitalised National Treasury should improve public finances but could face growing populist attacks as difficult fiscal decisions mount.