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May is unlikely to form a majority for her Brexit plan

Thursday, July 19, 2018

Significance

The rocky passage of both has laid out Prime Minister Theresa May’s key Brexit dilemma: she will struggle to secure a majority in the House of Commons for her eventual deal with the EU.

Impacts

  • The parliamentary victories have secured May's short-term future.
  • There is a majority against no deal in parliament; its likelihood depends on whether MPs can find a route to assert this majority.
  • The likelihood of other outcomes, such as a general election or a further referendum on EU membership before March 29, 2019, has increased.

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