Syrian reconstruction plans may block refugee return

Significance

Amman already hosts 667,000 registered Syrian refugees and many more unregistered; like neighbours Beirut and Ankara, it is increasingly worried about the economic impact and whether repatriation will ever be possible. These concerns were exacerbated after Damascus on April 4 passed Law 10, facilitating the expropriation of land for reconstruction.

Impacts

• Military victories in the south and northwest could encourage Damascus to implement Law 10 sooner rather than later.
• Implementation could complicate government formation in Lebanon, where refugee return is a highly emotive topic.
• Lebanese Christians concerned about demographic change could blame Damascus’s ally Hezbollah and President Michel Aoun for blocked returns.
• Growing international awareness of the property issue could force European countries to push for a Syrian political settlement.