Somalia-Somaliland conflict may defy quick resolution

Subject

Conflict between Somalia and Somaliland.

Significance

Fighting since May around Tukaraq in the disputed border region between the breakaway republic of Somaliland and the Puntland regional state of Somalia has claimed as many as 100 lives. Such clashes have been a periodic occurrence and have historically followed a similar trajectory of military hedging followed by confrontation and then de-escalation. However, in the latest iteration a more protracted conflict has ensued, which could yet deteriorate further.

Impacts

• Further conflict would worsen the humanitarian situation for populations already hit by flooding and drought.
• Rising tensions between Somaliland and Somalia may affect cross-border business ties.
• A failure to resolve the conflict will have no immediate impact on foreign investment, but strains would show in the longer term.