Mozambique's peace talks will enter critical phase

Significance

Ruling FRELIMO lawmakers last week decided to postpone a proposed vote on electoral law amendments, part of a decentralisation package agreed earlier this year, unless RENAMO disarms before polls scheduled for October. A failure to pass these new laws risks potentially scuppering an overall peace deal, while potentially delaying the forthcoming elections.

Impacts

• A tough counterinsurgency strategy may ease hardliners' criticisms of the government, but risks alienating the local population and Muslims.
• A prolonged peace impasse could see renewed mistrust between RENAMO and FRELIMO, raising fears of a return to violence.
• Ruling party pressure on RENAMO could prompt renewed consideration of an electoral pact with the Mozambique Democratic Movement.