Colombia vote will calm investors but risk peace

Significance

The starkly polarised election passed with remarkably little trouble. However, with the CD vehemently opposed to the incumbent government’s peace processes with the guerrillas, the relative political calm may prove short-lived.

Impacts

• Increased military activity in border areas could drive tensions with Venezuela.
• The end of ELN talks, and Duque’s inauguration, could prompt surges of attacks on security forces and oil infrastructure.
• Petro will maintain a high profile in the Senate, potentially launching a renewed push for the presidency in 2022.