Opposition concern over Congo elections mounts

Significance

Kabila’s second and constitutionally final mandate expired in December 2016. However, that deadline slipped, as did a compromise deal (the ‘December 31 Agreement’) to hold elections by December 2017. Now elections are scheduled for December 2018. While Congo’s political class has finally moved into election gear, there are lingering concerns that the schedule -- or the constitution -- may not be respected.

Impacts

• With faith in Kabila’s ability to maintain stability diminishing, regional pressure to respect the election schedule may grow.
• Insecurity, financial or logistical constraints could all contribute to delays.
• Even if the schedule is respected, the election itself is likely to be deeply contested, and claims of fraud are virtually inevitable.