US-North Korea dialogue may outlast sunken summit

Significance

Trump cited “tremendous anger and open hostility” in recent statements from North Korea as the reason. US allies were apparently not consulted over Trump’s intention to cancel, even though South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in and Japan’s foreign minister Taro Kono were in Washington in recent days. Hours before the cancellation, Pyongyang fulfilled its pledge to destroy its Punggye-Ri nuclear test site, observed by foreign journalists (but no nuclear experts).

Impacts

• Trump’s rebuff will weaken North Korean peace advocates (maybe including Kim) and strengthen military hardliners.
• South Korea’s Moon, the eager Koreas peace advocate, is politically tarnished; his ties with Trump will be hard to repair.
• China will strengthen its influence over North Korea; sanctions enforcement will be eased quietly.
• Absent a successful summit, Trump’s ‘deal-maker’ reputation may suffer; he may shake-up his advisor team ahead of another summit.