Libyan major escalation and progress are both unlikely

Significance

The National Conference, which aims to garner Libyans’ thoughts on the conflict and promote reconciliation, is part of the UN’s September 2017 ‘Action Plan’ for ending the political crisis, which also includes amending the 2015 Libya Political Agreement (LPA) and holding elections. However, this plan and sequencing have not had unanimous buy-in.

Impacts

• Security problems will persist, but a major escalation in armed conflict is unlikely.
• Projects and activity by large foreign companies will slowly increase.
• Local government and local security forces will maintain the increased importance they have had since 2011.