US opium raids unlikely to weaken Afghan Taliban

Subject

Mixed successes in the US air war on Afghan drugs.

Significance

The US military has been using air strikes to destroy facilities where opium is turned into heroin, and claims this is greatly reducing the Taliban's income and hence combat capacity. However, it is unclear whether the Taliban are suffering significant financial losses from a trade from which they benefit but in which their involvement is not as extensive as US officials say.

Impacts

• Hitting heroin labs will not significantly change the dynamics of the war against the Taliban.
• A reduction in the Taliban's drugs revenue would make them more reliant on support from US adversaries.
• The death of civilians will increase hostility against the Afghan government and its Western allies.