East Timor’s ruling party faces election defeat

Significance

The poll follows the collapse of the minority government led by President Francisco Guterres’s and Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri’s Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor (Fretilin). A parliamentary grouping led by Xanana Gusmao’s National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT) had blocked Fretilin’s budget, with the CNRT now leading a Change for Progress Alliance (AMP).

Impacts

• If Fretilin’s support drops below 30%, Alkatiri may come under pressure to relinquish leadership of the party.
• The dominance in East Timorese politics of resistance-era political elites will increase.
• Given Australia’s closer relations with ASEAN, the boundary treaty with East Timor will add to Canberra’s growing influence in the region.