Burundi crisis will persist beyond referendum

Significance

It is aggressively silencing dissent, and on May 4, the government announced a six-month ban on BBC and VOA broadcasts within the country. If passed, the reforms could allow incumbent President Pierre Nkurunziza to serve two more seven-year terms of office, which could extend his rule until 2034.

Impacts

• The referendum will offer little respite to Burundi’s beleaguered economy, which grew by 1.3% in 2017.
• An uptick in political violence could spur further refugee flows across borders.
• Armed opposition groups in neighbouring countries will continue to build their capacity, posing an ongoing security threat within Burundi.
• Rwanda will remain the most critical regional state, despite a slight thaw in relations after recent bilateral exchanges.