Middle East Kurds may become more risk-averse

Subject

Prospects for Kurdish nationalism.

Significance

Scattered across several countries, the Kurds have long-standing nationalist aspirations. However, the spectacular referendum miscalculation by the political leadership of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq has thrown Kurdish political projects into disarray across the region. That failure was exacerbated by a crackdown in Turkey and Ankara’s intervention in Syria’s Afrin.

Impacts

• KRG leaders will negotiate with Baghdad for their political, economic and security interests from a position of relative weakness.
• Setbacks in Iraq and Syria could increase intra-Kurdish tensions as Kurdish politicians seek to capitalise on the failures of their rivals.
• Iranian Kurds will come under more pressure because of their Sunni identity, given fears of salafi-jihadism.