Guinean political divides could worsen ahead of poll

Subject

Guinea's political impasse.

Significance

A truce was agreed on April 2 between President Alpha Conde and the main opposition leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo, after weeks of public protests following local elections in February. The rivals agreed to pursue a political dialogue to resolve the contested results of twelve communes, following the first local polls since 2005. Over ten people were killed in post-poll violence, including a security officer, while scores were wounded and arrested in ensuing clashes.

Impacts

• The ruling party's focus on securing re-election later this year could undermine the government's flagship development programme.
• Conde is likely to prioritise social spending over capital investment to appease his core voters and trade unions.
• A rise in global oil prices will further increase the fiscal deficit.
• The opposition will continue to prioritise protests to challenge the government, given its lack of trust in the judiciary.