Afghan president's contest with rival far from over

Subject

Afghanistan's politics of brinkmanship and subterfuge.

Significance

President Ashraf Ghani appointed a new governor for Balkh region in mid-March only after a concession that persuaded Atta Mohammad Noor to step down as provincial chief. Atta is a powerful former militia commander who can still raise a force of armed men. The new head, Ishaq Rahguzar, was not Ghani's first choice but the president could not afford to let three months of brinkmanship with a powerbroker and potential electoral rival drag on any further.

Impacts

• Atta now looks more than ever like the pre-eminent opposition figure.
• Ghani’s compromise may encourage other powerbrokers to be defiant.
• Political allies within Ghani’s camp, such as Hezb-e Islami’s Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, may act as spoilers to derail the agreement.