Ethiopia’s new premier will face familiar challenges

Significance

Securing the premiership caps a sharp rise for Abiy within both the Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation (OPDO), of which he became leader in February, and the EPRDF. Abiy and OPDO have leveraged the protest movement of the last three years to push for a rebalancing of power within the EPRDF coalition. However, Abiy will now face significant popular expectations of political reform, which he may struggle to meet.

Impacts

• Resolution of the leadership crisis will provide a mild boost to foreign investor confidence, but further unrest could quickly unwind it.
• Activists will view an end to the state of emergency, on which Abiy did not vote, as an indicator of the EPRDF’s commitment to reform.
• The conduct of local elections, scheduled for the coming weeks, will be the first test for the new EPRDF leadership.