Latest Philippine martial law plan creates new risks

Subject

Further extension to martial law in Mindanao.

Significance

The southern Philippine island of Mindanao on January 1 entered its third stretch of martial law administration, which will run throughout 2018. Martial law was declared in May last year after Islamist militants captured Marawi City in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). The city has been recaptured by government forces, but martial law has been renewed twice on Mindanao as the military cracks down on the remaining terrorists and other groups.

Impacts

• Manila will seek intelligence and security support from foreign partners including Tokyo, Canberra and Washington.
• Protesting martial law, the New People’s Army (NPA) will likely target energy and extractives projects, and push extortion and kidnapping.
• The Mindanao counterterrorism drive could, as before, prompt a rise in maritime-based terrorism and crime.