Ivorian coalition could split over succession plan

Subject

Ruling coalition divisions.

Significance

President Alassane Ouattara and former President Henri Konan Bedie agreed earlier this month to set up a committee to prepare a legal framework and timeframe to transform the ruling Rally of the Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) coalition into a unified party. The RHDP was formed in 2005 as a vehicle to get Ouattara into power. Without any effective opposition parties at present, the ruling coalition plans to turn the RHDP into a fully fledged party to maintain its hold on power. However, the transformation plan has been regularly delayed since it was first mooted in 2014.

Impacts

• Rising concerns over domestic security could deter much-needed foreign investment and undermine strong growth prospects.
• Reforming the army will put further pressure on the widening budget deficit.
• A recent military retrenchment deal could cause a public backlash and rising public-sector worker demands next year.