Congo provincial governance deficit may deepen unrest

Subject

Congo's ruling coalition and the provinces.

Significance

Amid a deepening political, institutional and economic crisis, the ruling Presidential Majority (MP) -- like President Joseph Kabila's People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) -- appears to be losing its grip on the provinces. Provincial governors in the Congo have a long-standing reputation for self-enrichment and nepotism. However, there are signs that provincial governance is not only deteriorating further, but increasingly slipping out of Kinshasa's control. This is resulting in heightened levels of corruption and intimidation -- and increasing popular unrest.

Impacts

• Minimum vote thresholds in the draft election law, which small parties see as a PPRD power grab, may further erode unity within the MP.
• Domestic unrest may spike as 2017 ends, with protests marking the expiry of the December 31 election deadline.
• Popular despair at deteriorating governance is likely to increase sympathies for local anti-government armed actors.