African secessionism will challenge national unity

Significance

An increasing number of African countries have secessionist movements that challenge existing state boundaries. However, few have the potential to secure their stated goals either through dialogue or force, but instead intensify ethnic identities and exacerbate existing social tensions.

Impacts

• The presence of secessionist movements discourages international investment from these areas, even when separatism is unlikely to occur.
• Even where secessionists have broad support, they will drain government resources from other security and development issues.
• Arbitrary colonial boundaries and multi-ethnic states mean more African separatist movements are likely in the next five years.
• The vast majority of secessionist movements will fail because they lack both international support and internal unity.