IS threat will persist after territorial losses

Significance

IS’s losses of territory, resources and key leaders have dented the group’s ambitions and operating budget. However, while those setbacks have affected morale on the ground, they also serve to reinforce the group’s resolve abroad.

Impacts

• IS will seek to mobilise and keep the organisation and brand name alive by multiplying attacks in the West.
• Globally, the group will exploit vulnerable political contexts and societal divides to stir up communal tensions.
• IS could entrench its footholds in Afghanistan and Libya, given a dearth of good governance.