Banned vote sets Catalonia on independence path

Significance

Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont said his government would “act at the end of this week or the beginning of next”, after more than 2 million Catalans voted for independence on October 1, despite a variety of state measures designed to prevent voting.

Impacts

• International sympathy for the independence bid may force the EU to address the issue of separatism within member states for the first time.
• Rajoy’s handling of the Catalan challenge could damage the standing of his PP in future elections.
• Spanish debate about how to avoid secession will increasingly focus on the search for cross-party agreement on a different state model.
• The Catalan issue undermined the support Rajoy has received from the Basque Nationalist Party, preventing approval of the 2018 budget.
• Economic growth will be affected by a loss of international investor confidence, which would also be problematic for a Catalan republic.