Ending Obamacare push will carry costs for Republicans

Significance

The latest Republican effort to retrench Obamacare federal outlays and protections, the Graham-Cassidy bill, stalled in the Senate due to insufficient signs of support, with the leadership deciding to not chance a vote on its passage before filibuster-bypassing budgetary reconciliation rules lapse on September 30. Repeated failed attempts to pass healthcare legislation have dominated the legislative calendar this year, but the Republican leadership has indicated that the party intends to shift to tax legislation.

Impacts

• Uncertainty about Washington's direction on health policy will lead to an increase in insurance premiums next year.
• Republicans proposing a tax bill financed with short-term borrowing will anger deficit hawks in the House.
• The Democrats running in 2018 on reducing pharmaceutical prices may be a viable inroad with independent ‘swing’ voters.