South Africa’s Ramaphosa will need greater branch push

Subject

A profile of Cyril Ramaphosa.

Significance

Media reports indicate that Minister of Human Settlements Lindiwe Sisulu is considering an offer from Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa to be his running mate in the ANC leadership campaign. The selection of a female deputy with liberation struggle credentials could bolster Ramaphosa's chances of succeeding President Jacob Zuma as party leader at December's national conference. Despite widespread support from party stalwarts, business leaders and many ANC branches, Ramaphosa has struggled to gain traction for long periods. A recent court victory for his supporters in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province has given him renewed hope of defeating his principal rival, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who has the backing of the incumbent and his allies.

Impacts

• A Ramaphosa presidency could drastically improve relations with the ANC’s alliance partners, the SACP and COSATU, in the short term.
• Victory for Ramaphosa would also significantly improve investor confidence, although growing fiscal slippages prior to 2019 are likely.
• Further damaging media allegations against Ramaphosa could emerge in the run-up to the ANC’s conference.