Iraq will use Middle East geopolitics for gain

Significance

The border has been closed for 27 years, since the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. The move has prompted speculation about whether it might alter the regional balance of power. It highlights Iraq’s pivotal role in the region: after the 2003 US invasion, Shia Muslims replaced Saddam Hussein’s mostly Sunni regime in Baghdad, altering the geopolitical balance between the two regional hegemons, Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, and bringing religion to the fore of regional politics.

Impacts

• Although the Yemen conflict feeds regional Shia resentment, Riyadh would be unable to withdraw without loss of face.
• Saudi Arabia and Bahrain will maintain security crackdowns on domestic Shia communities.
• Sunni resentment of alleged demographic exclusion in Syria will focus on the ongoing Iranian role in the country.