Cambodia’s incumbent CPP more likely to win in 2018

Significance

This is the latest in a series of Cambodian political controversies which the CNRP’s supporters say are an attempt by the incumbent Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) to secure victory in the national election in July 2018. CPP supporters counter that the moves are legitimate to protect Cambodian sovereignty and interests.

Impacts

• Arrests of other opposition and media and civil society figures are possible.
• The CPP will likely issue further populist policies pre-2018, including higher worker pay and protections rules.
• So that the 2018 election appears free and fair, the CNRP is unlikely to be banned.
• Kem could face additional investigation and possible charges.