Kenya-Tanzania tensions will simmer

Significance

The trade disputes are emblematic of the difficult relationship between Nairobi and Dodoma, which has been aggravated in recent years by mutual recriminations alleging interference in one another’s elections. These tensions are shaped by deeper rivalries between the two countries, as a rising Tanzania seeks to challenge Kenyan political and economic dominance.

Impacts

• The Tanzanian president’s quick congratulations to Kenyatta, before Odinga has conceded, may take some heat out of interference claims.
• The East African Community (EAC)'s failure to end the bilateral trade rows will damage its claims to be able to resolve internal disputes.
• Tensions will slow EAC integration, making plans for currency integration even more remote.