Risk of North Korea war will grow if trends continue

Significance

North Korea the same day pledged a “decisive act of justice” to avenge “a hundred thousand-fold” the “heinous crime” of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions approved unanimously on August 5, which imposed stringent new curbs on North Korea’s exports.

Impacts

• Pyongyang's ever-belligerent rhetoric should not be taken literally.
• As distinct from provocative WMD tests, Kim Jong-un is unlikely to launch a major attack, knowing it would be suicidal.
• Seoul and Beijing will strive for renewed diplomacy.
• South Korea and Japan would bear the brunt of any actual hostilities.
• Unilateral US action that provoked Pyongyang into striking South Korea or Japan would probably damage these alliances irreparably.