China-India border standoff will simmer until it snows

Subject

China-India border dispute at the tri-junction with Bhutan.

Significance

The current border spat between China and India over disputed territory on the Doklam plateau began in early June. On August 2, Beijing issued a new 15-page bulletin -- which Delhi has indicated it will ignore -- demanding the 'unconditional withdrawal' of the Indian Army from its current position. Neither side will wish to be seen 'backing down', and brinkmanship inevitably brings the risk of violence.

Impacts

• India may express stronger opposition to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
• As China's military relationship with Pakistan deepens, any Indian conflict with Pakistan could prompt intervention by China.
• India will bolster its diplomatic ties with Japan and Australia.