Ankara will remain cool on climate change

Subject

Turkey's decision to postpone ratification of the Paris Agreement.

Significance

Turkey has made ratification of the Paris Agreement on climate change contingent on promises of funding. Compromise will be difficult given the wider antagonisms between the Erdogan government and the major powers and the likelihood that any deal acceptable to Turkey would be perceived elsewhere as a special concession.

Impacts

• Greening the economy will remain a low priority: coal-fired power plants will continue to be built.
• Turkey's carbon emissions will continue to grow rapidly and its share in global emissions to edge upwards for some years to come.
• Perceptions of Turkey as uncooperative and self-interested on climate change will increase its isolation and curtail its global influence.