Humala arrest will not ease Peru political divisions

Significance

The jailing of Humala brings to five the number of former presidents facing legal problems in relation to either corruption, human rights violations, or both. Humala's lawyers will lodge an appeal, but he will continue to face legal problems both in relation to funds allegedly received from Brazilian construction company Odebrecht to fund his successful election campaign in 2011 and to human rights crimes committed in his former capacity as a military commander in Ayacucho in the 1980s. The controversy surrounding Humala will provide some welcome relief for President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.

Impacts

• The case against Humala and Heredia will draw criticisms about the politicisation of the justice system.
• Kuczynski will highlight improved relations with the opposition majority in Congress in his July 28 Independence Day speech.
• No major cabinet changes are in prospect.
• A modicum of economic recovery will provide some leeway for the government in the second half.