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Libyan economy will limp on

Thursday, July 6, 2017

Subject

Libya's economy.

Significance

Libyan oil production and exports have been rising in the past few months. Domestic and international concern about Libya's economic situation has fluctuated. For decades, public spending depended almost entirely on oil and gas export earnings. However, the political crisis since 2014 disrupted oil production and exports, while spending on major infrastructure and hydrocarbons projects has largely halted.

Impacts

  • The gap between the official and black market rates for the Libyan dinar may narrow slightly, but liquidity problems will persist.
  • Oil production is unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels before 2018 at the earliest.
  • Libyan and Middle Eastern companies will find opportunities for small- and medium-scale investment.
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