Gridlock is likely as Australian minor parties rise

Significance

Surveys show Australians are increasingly disenchanted with their major political parties. Despite some policy successes, the governing Liberal Party continues to trail well behind the opposition Australian Labor Party (ALP) in election projections and two-party preferred polling. However, Labor has not improved its position in primary vote intentions, either. Instead, the beneficiaries from the government's woes are minor parties and independents.

Impacts

• Liberal parliamentarians at risk of losing seats could force an anti-Turnbull putsch despite public frustration with leadership 'spills'.
• Government reversals on pensions and superannuation will exacerbate defections by the Liberals' core voters to conservative alternatives.
• Labor has so far avoided detailed scrutiny of its policies, but it will soon be forced to differentiate itself from the government.