Renewed Philippine peace push could be problematic

Significance

This follows the Bangsamoro Transition Commission (BTC) signing the BBL bill on June 16. The new administrative arrangements envisaged by the BBL are integral to the government’s peace process with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). Making progress in the peace process has taken on new urgency given the battle underway in Marawi City.

Impacts

• In the 2019 mid-term congressional elections, some candidates may campaign against the BBL.
• Calls for a separate Bangsamoro police force are likely to be a sticking point.
• Progress in the Bangsamoro peace process is unlikely to have much effect on the faltering communist peace effort.
• However, it could in time aid Philippine internal security and counterterrorism.
• Peace in Mindanao would be followed by development investment, especially on infrastructure.