Succession change could spark Saudi policy volatility

Significance

King Salman on June 21 named his 31-year-old son to succeed him, dismissing Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef from all positions, including that of interior minister. Mohammed bin Nayef led the kingdom’s internal security efforts for over a decade.

Impacts

• Mohammed bin Salman is hawkish on Iran, increasing the risk of bilateral confrontation.
• It is possible that the king might abdicate in favour of his son, especially if his health deteriorates.
• Former King Abdullah’s son Mit’ab could be replaced as head of the National Guard by a Salman loyalist.