Referendum resistance shakes Mali president

Significance

It did not give a new date or explain the reason, but growing opposition to the referendum was likely a key factor. Still, the government will need a new constitution to provide legal backing to the peace process in the north.

Impacts

• Successful peace implementation would undermine jihadists’ ability to operate in the region.
• Jihadists would seek to disrupt any referendum process in the north and central regions by attacking voters, polling agents and stations.
• The UN Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)'s mandate ends this month, but will be renewed for another year, given the precarious security situation.
• The creation of the G5 anti-terrorist force will likely increase the pressure on jihadists.
• However, participating countries will be at heightened risk of retaliatory attacks.