South African labour movement will fracture further

Significance

COSATU is part of the longstanding tripartite alliance with the ruling ANC and the South African Communist Party (SACP). Relations between Zuma and COSATU are irreparably damaged: the union has endorsed South Africa's deputy president, Cyril Ramaphosa, to succeed Zuma as ANC head at December's national conference.

Impacts

• Whoever wins the ANC presidency will struggle to end party divisions, although Ramaphosa looks best placed to do so.
• The United Democratic Movement and Inkatha Freedom Party could make electoral gains in Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, respectively.
• The ANC's control of economically vital Gauteng province could be in jeopardy in 2019.