West will urge parties to form Kosovo government

Significance

In the lead is the three-party PAN coalition, comprising the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK) and Initiative for Kosovo (Nisma), all parties with their origins in the one-time Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK). However, with just one-third of the popular vote and a projected 39 seats in Kosovo’s 120-seat parliament, the coalition’s tally has fallen well short of the working majority needed to form a government. Waiting to take power is the populist, anti-establishment Vetevendosje movement, offering the prospect of radical change in Kosovo’s politics.

Impacts

• The chance of market-based reforms has fallen; a Vetevendosje-led government would try to reverse such policies as privatisation.
• Vetevendosje’s potential exclusion from government risks further civil unrest, amid poor living standards and anger with the establishment.
• The near-inevitability of hardline nationalists entering government implies worse relations with Serbia and possibly a serious incident.
• EU integration will remain stuck since there is little chance of the new parliament ratifying the border agreement with Montenegro.