External interference raises risk of Libya escalation

Significance

The report outlines that the UAE expanded Haftar's airpower significantly. Egypt has also been a staunch supporter: in late May it carried out airstrikes against positions held by the LNA's enemies. External support for Haftar has bolstered his position and arguably eroded chances for dialogue.

Impacts

• A siege situation could emerge around cities like Misrata.
• Extremist jihadis, such as al-Qaida and Islamic State (IS), could take advantage of new fighting to stage a comeback.
• The country's crude oil production will be volatile, especially if violence disrupts oil production in western Libya.